Value Creation

I hear a lot of opinions on how economic value is created. Some of these opinions are supported by secondhand anecdotal evidence and most of them are used to support various political or social positions. Some of the most absurd theories on value creation even come from wealthy and/or successful people so someone without a business education may be forgiven for believing that this is a philosophical question that can only be answered through a belief in some set of principles. I would like to articulate why there is an objective reality to value creation. It has very little bearing on any political or social position and absolutely nothing to do with faith.

Value is created through the decision making process. This process need not be rational; the only thing that matters is success. As in warfare, winning by skill, preparation, accident, luck, or for the wrong reasons are all sufficient. Unfortunately, in this framework, there is an objective definition of success and it requires two ingredients. The first ingredient is an understanding of the money generated from a new venture and the second is understanding the price of the money necessary to start and maintain the project. Success is defined as a project that generates a rate of return greater than the cost of the money that is required for the project. That is it. Full stop.

While the concept is simple, there is also an objective methodology for calculating success. Future cash flows must be discounted at the cost of capital which is the rate at which you obtain the capital necessary to start and run the business. Oftentimes this rate is uncertain so the best estimate is used and the results are tested to see if changes in this rate affect the decision to go ahead with the project. The internal rate of return is the constant rate at which a series of positive and negative cash flows can be discounted such that the net present value of these cash flow are zero. This can also be described as the discount rate at which the manager is financially indifferent to taking on a new project. If that discount rate is greater than your cost of capital then you undertake the project.

Whether managers know this process or not, this is the only method of creating economic value. Improving on this process requires either lowering your cost of capital by getting money at a lower interest rate or by increasing the present value of the cash flows generated from the project. This can be achieved by reducing the investment in the project, getting the cash flows earlier, or increasing the growth rate in cash flows.

Author: Probable Pattern

Former Marine and Curious Critter

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